Impact of Globalization on Environmental Sustainability: ARDL Based Evidence from Pakistan

Abstract

This study investigates the impact of globalization on sustainable development in Pakistan from 1990 to 2022 using the Autoregressive Distributed Lag (ARDL) bounds testing framework. The analysis confirms a stable long-run cointegrating relationship among the variables. Globalization exerts a significant positive effect on the ecological footprint, indicating that deeper global integration has so far intensified environmental pressures. Rising energy use, rapid urbanization, and expanding industrial activity further aggravate unsustainable development pathways, reflecting Pakistan’s reliance on fossil fuels, unplanned city growth, and resource-intensive production. Short-run estimates mirror the long-run findings, and the negative, highly significant error-correction term shows a strong speed of adjustment toward equilibrium after short-term shocks. Diagnostic and stability tests validate the robustness of the model. Overall, the evidence suggests that Pakistan’s current pattern of globalization and structural transformation undermines environmental sustainability. Policy efforts must prioritize renewable energy adoption, sustainable urban planning, and cleaner industrialization to align economic integration with long-term ecological resilience and the Sustainable Development Goals (SDGs).