India-Pakistan Cross-Border Tensions Post-2019: Strategic Stability, Diplomatic Stalemate, and Prospects for Conflict Resolution

Abstract

The India-Pakistan relationship has entered a new phase of heightened tension and strategic uncertainty since the Pulwama attack and the subsequent Balakot airstrikes in 2019. This research examines the evolution of cross-border hostilities post-2019, emphasizing the impact on regional strategic stability and the deepening diplomatic stalemate between the two nuclear-armed neighbors. The revocation of Article 370 in Indian-administered Jammu and Kashmir further strained bilateral ties, suspending trade, dialogue, and confidence-building measures. This study explores how conventional and sub-conventional conflicts have altered deterrence postures, created instability along the Line of Control (LoC), and closed diplomatic avenues. By analyzing official statements, policy shifts, and regional alignments, the research identifies key challenges preventing conflict resolution, including political mistrust, domestic electoral pressures, and external strategic interests. Furthermore, it evaluates the potential role of third-party mediation, backchannel diplomacy, and people-to-people initiatives as tools for de-escalation. The paper concludes by outlining a framework for sustainable peace based on mutual strategic restraint, renewed diplomatic engagement, and regional cooperation.